Disclaimer: this is 100% based on assumptions, fiction, fantasy, and reason.
The problem
On the 15th of July 2016, a military coup was undertaken in Turkey. It was set up in a very amateuristic way and failed after a few hours. After this, the position of Erdogan has been solidified. The Hizmet movement of Fetullah Guhlen was accused of being behind the coup, but the proof is unclear and many people that cannot possibly have been involved with the coup have been targeted by the regime. This leads to other, generally left-wing, observers to suggest Erdogan staged a coup against himself. The problem: why take the risk?A story that doesn't make sense
In a far away future, we will know more precisely what has been going on. For now, what we know is that the official story is a joke and that democracy and secularism in Turkey have been turned back. Some observations:- The bombings were on symbolical but desolated places, causing very little, if any, harm. The palace of the president was not bombed, only in front of it some bombs were dropped on the street. The president himself, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, was not there.
- The president would have been warned about the coup by the secret service on 15:00 of the same day, according to the secret service. Aren't they supposed to keep the truth secret?
- Erdogan was in a hotel in Marmaris, which the army knew. However, the parachutist arrived 20 minutes late to catch him there.
- He managed to get on a plane and fly to Istanbul, where he had been mayor in the 1990s. It was the only plane to fly over mainland Turkey and it was followed by two F16 fighter jets, but not taken down. The pilot apparently misled the army pilots by giving identity codes of a passenger airplane.
- The holders of the coup did not reveal any affiliation, had no other message than to 'restore democracy and to make a new constitution similar to the European examples'.
- The coup-holders nearly made no victims, one exception being an army official in charge for the fight against ISIS.
- Nearly nobody from the military staff was directly accused of organizing the coup. The few that were released contradictory statements of their involvement. One general pledged guilty, then had his ear cut off, and after that he accused Gühlen because of the ways of the 'parallel structure' he had observed. What would they have cut off if he maintained his mea culpa?
- Thousands of Hizmet sympathisers were arrested or harassed after the coup failed, as if a plan unfolded.
Despite the absence of disclosed evidence by the regime (yet undisclosed), the great Dani Rodrik believes the official story due to circumstantial evidence. The Hizmet movement appears to have a history of staging incidents and influencing tribunals.
What if it's a Catch-22 of advantages?
After hearing about the psyche of Erdogan and his previous walks, I conclude that neither story is likely. My main intuition is the following:- Erdogan is pro-European and has business interests.
- Neither Erdogan nor Hizmet has much interest in playing high stakes. Both opposing forces are well organized and present in their respective environments, be it in politics and business, or intellectual movements and jurisprudence.
- As the world is watching, this cannot have been about national affairs only.
- It has become clear that Turkey helped to sustain ISIS in order to overtake Assad in Syria as well as the Kurds.
- If the coup succeeds, Turkey becomes more democratic and loyal. It is an asset to keep.
- If the coup fails, Turkey becomes a troubling partner, but one that does not have to show accountability. This will glue the US to the NATO in case Trump runs amok and threatens to blows up the Treaty. It also allows Turkey to ally with Russia in order to correct the escalated situation in Syria.
- Without a coup, the NATO is weakened, as either the US or Turkey (or both) will loosen ties. Syria and Iraq will be under Russian control, or ISIS rules, to the embarrassment of Saudi-Arabia and maybe even threatening its position either directly or through western criticism.
The NATO-Turkey conspiracy would be initiated by the NATO, but presented as an offer that can't be refused. If the coup succeeds, Turkey, which had become almost an islamic state, makes a leap jump to EU membership. Erdogan is temporarily out of the political game, but may come back and certainly sees the old aim come true and have better business opportunities in the Istanbul area. If the coup fails, he can unite Turkey, marginalize the Kurds, gains absolute power, and a license to root out all traces of Hizmet in any public domain.
Is this story verified? Pretty much: if the coup is planned by the NATO it is a military plan, so the chain of command is followed without many officials knowing why they do what told. There must have been clear instructions not to create mayhem. As both plotting parties are supporting the coup, not much will boil up, and nothing much did, except for some scapegoating of Hizmet, which does not have a strong leg in the army. The secret service had all time needed to create a list of people to persecuted, and of a plan to bring Erdogan into position as the stronghold that withstood the storm.
After the coup, we saw the following indications of the plan:
- Almost immediately: better relations between Turkey and Russia [1] - with the exception of the incident with the fighter jet taken down for crossing Turkish airspace.
- Within the next months: the deployment of tanks for a ground attack on ISIS, in addition to the bombing in Kurdistan that had been going on. [2]
- Trump becoming the president-elect but lowering the tone on the NATO.
- Recently: a renewed interest of Turkey to join the EU. [1]
- Up next: the defeat of ISIS in the Middle East.
- Erdogan ordered some arrests of Turkish officers at the NATO in Belgium (unclear if they were arrested)
- Migration deal with EU
- ISIS defeated
- Hyperinflation in Turkey
- Economic war with Trump (almost personally)
- Seeking economic alliances with Russia and China
- Proof that Trump is a Russian puppet, so the triangular relation US-TK-RU cannot break at any point, yet it does
Real or surreal?
You decide.
More fun? Read Coup de Telephone.
